{"id":9775,"date":"2021-12-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-06T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aspeninstitutece.softmedia.cz\/article\/2021\/democracy-threat\/"},"modified":"2024-09-30T19:35:05","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T17:35:05","slug":"democracy-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspeninstitutece.org\/cs\/article\/2021\/democracy-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Streams Falling Into One River: A Threat to Democracy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0141ukasz Paw\u0142owski: Over the last years it has become a ritual to complain about the state of American democracy. Now, however, the legitimacy of the whole political system seems to be under huge pressure. Trust in crucial institutions \u2013 for example the Supreme Court, not to mention Congress \u2013 has dropped to record lows. At the same time, a huge portion of Republican voters dismiss Joe Biden as an illegitimate president and believe in false claims that the last elections were somehow fraudulent. Recently, a former adviser to John McCain, Robert Kagan, in a long essay for The Washington Post<\/em>\u00a0warned that the Republican Party has become a threat to American democracy.<\/p>\n

\u0141P: Is it still just a noise, a form of regular political infighting, or is it a signal of a more profound threat? After 6 January and the attack on the Capitol, is the American political system on the brink of some calamity?<\/h2>\n

Ivan Hodac: The American political system is in the most serious crisis in decades. Trust in institutions \u2013 which is indeed plummeting \u2013 is fundamentally important to democracy. But was 6 January the turning point? I don\u2019t think so, I believe it all started before.<\/p>\n

\u0141P: When?<\/h2>\n

IH: It was probably the election of Trump and the whole campaign leading to it, which revealed a deep division in American society. People begin to question democratic institutions, democratic processes, and results of democratic elections but we also see the ongoing widening of the \u2018social scissors\u2019. And last but not least, there is foreign policy. I realize most Americans are not all that interested in international relations, but the diminishing power projected by the United States globally, coupled with the rising power of China, pose a great threat to American democracy. There is also the East-West division in the United States which is often underestimated. The west coast of the US is basically oriented toward the Pacific region and does not care much about anything else.<\/p>\n

\u0141P: Do you think the onus is on the Republican Party, which sold its soul to Donald Trump, or are both sides of the political spectrum to blame, because this process long predates Trump?<\/h2>\n

R\u00fcdiger Lentz: The American political system has always been based on checks and balances between parties, between institutions, between the presidency on one side and Congress on the other.\u00a0 But now the system is crumbling. The two parties find it more and more difficult to work out compromises. The roots of the crisis go much deeper, though. It is not a one-dimensional problem. Different factors have come together, like streams falling into one river.<\/p>\n

This crisis is also about identity. As long as the American dream was widely believed in, everything worked relatively well. John Steinbeck once said that in America even those expropriated today still believe they can become millionaires tomorrow. That was the social glue which kept those diverse people together. Now the rich are getting richer, and the middle class is in tatters.<\/p>\n

I travelled through West Virginia 20 years ago and many signs of decline were already all over the place \u2013 poverty, crumbling infrastructure, drug addiction, families splitting at a much higher rate than in the 1950s and 1960s. And then came the antagonist forces from the outside.<\/p>\n

Back in the past, people used to rally around the flag. Patriotism and the belief that the United States was a force for good, a beacon on the hill, was another type of social glue. Now, there are other beacons for people who think differently. America has lost its aura of exceptionalism.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

We need to make sure to stop this malaise from spreading because similar factors are present in Europe as well\u2014renationalization, disconnection with our identities and difficulties in answering the questions of who we are, where we come from and where do we want to go. In Germany, whole segments of society are \u2018trumpish\u2019 in their beliefs and actions. This virus is not confined to America. It\u2019s coming to us as well.<\/p>\n

\u0141P: You say people fear losing their identity, but on the other hand it seems that American politics is now entirely focused on identity\u2014it might be a conservative identity, the identity of a white Southerner on the right, or sexual, racial, gender identities on the left. The number of these identities is, I would say, growing and there is no narrative which would show these people what they have in common.<\/h2>\n

RL: Indeed, the roof of the house under which different Americans used to come together is broken. People used to be proud of being an American \u2013 no matter Republican or Democrat \u2013 under one flag, one anthem and one identity. At the same time, for decades it had been an open-minded society which believed that the constant influx of outsiders is precisely what makes America great.<\/p>\n

That came into question when millions of Latin Americans started pouring into California, New Mexico and Texas. The question of immigration has once more become a scratch on the smooth surface of an idealized image of American identity. And it became yet another factor dividing society\u2014with Democrats still embracing the idea of bringing more people in, while Republicans turning to a more nationalist view, which puts \u201cAmerica first\u201d and announces that the boat is already full. The same challenges are now coming full-fledged to Europe.<\/p>\n

IH: Let\u2019s not forget about the inequality. People see and feel it growing.<\/p>\n

\u0141P: American society was never egalitarian, but I understand that in the past people used to believe they could move ahead through hard work and now the belief is gone. So, the crux of the matter is not so much the level of inequality, but the lost trust in social mobility, correct?<\/h2>\n

IH: I think it\u2019s both\u2014the wealth gap between the richest and poorest has always been there, but not as wide as it is now. Or at least that is what people think because new means of communications make it more visible. The fact that people know about it, plays an important role. And the belief that a person has a chance to advance is also gone, especially among the middle class. As a result, the country has become more inward-looking. This is not only an American phenomenon, but when it happens in the US it has global repercussions.<\/p>\n

RL: We know how the US coped with traumas in the past. After the Vietnam trauma, it took Ronald Reagan\u2019s two terms in the White House and then the victory in the Cold War for Americans to regain their self-confidence, which then held out through the 1990s.<\/p>\n

The attacks on 9\/11 became another turning point as Americans discovered they were vulnerable and not universally loved. It was a shock which brought to the surface destructive tendencies already present within society and the political system.<\/p>\n

\u0141P: How is it all going to impact Washington’s standing in the world? President Joe Biden seems to believe he needs to prove democracies can deliver to their citizens in order to push back the threat of authoritarians, who claim they are better equipped to deal with current challenges. Is Biden right in saying that this is a defining moment in a struggle between democracies and autocracies?<\/h2>\n

RL: He is right, but we know he needs some support from the Republican side as far as the law-making process is concerned. Do they want him to succeed? Absolutely not, because of their short-term goals. The next midterm elections are coming in less than a year, Republicans want to take back the House and the Senate, and any success by Biden will only make it more difficult.<\/p>\n

IH: The fact that political rivalry overrides any consideration of the public good is not a strictly American phenomenon. As a politician in Europe, you also have 4 to 5 years to succeed and the other side instead of working with you tries to undermine your efforts. They may share your view \u2013 in the US most Americans agree their infrastructure needs investments \u2013 but they cannot let you succeed.<\/p>\n

RL: We are touching upon a critical point. The political system in the US has become paralyzed. Back in the past, there were people in the middle, both in the Democratic and Republican Party \u2013 so-called red dog Democrats and moderate Republicans \u2013 who in times of crisis were able to forge compromises. Now these politicians are on the verge of extinction.<\/p>\n

At least since the emergence of the Tea Party, we have members of Congress elected solely to carry the radical message of some of their constituents to Washington without any need to look for a compromise with the other side. Trump only accelerated this process. The center is no longer there.<\/p>\n

IH: And it is going to be very difficult to get out of the current predicament in a bipartisan system. It\u2019s easier to deal with the problem of polarization in the multiparty system we have in most European countries. Even though this is now also changing\u2014look at some of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.<\/p>\n

\u0141P: It seems clear you expect the US to steadily decline in the next 5-10 years\u2026<\/h2>\n

IH: We need to be very careful\u2014when you ask whether we expect the US to decline, do you mean the decline of the political system or the American role in the world?<\/p>\n

\u0141P: Aren\u2019t the two interconnected?<\/h2>\n

IH: The country\u2019s global role is already declining. After Washington came out on top in the Cold War, there was no enemy\u2014the Soviet Union was gone, and no other power could take its place at the time. Now there is China. On the one hand, it is a common adversary to the West. On the other, it has not pushed Americans to clearly ask Europeans for help in counterbalancing Beijing\u2019s power. Instead, Americans create the impression they can do it alone. And in my view they are wrong.<\/p>\n

To counterbalance the rising power of China, both on the economic as well as the military front, we will need each other. We absolutely need to come to the conclusion as soon as possible.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

RL: There has been a lot of talk since Biden took office in which Americans made it clear they would like Europeans to join them in reviving international institutions and the idea of multilateralism. I agree, however, that these messages reached only the political class and fell short of creating a common political movement.<\/p>\n

If the United States wants to retake the leadership of the world, it needs allies. And the only true allies are in Europe. Which brings us to a major question for the future: what do we still have in common?<\/p>\n

\u0141P: Biden\u2019s administration must be of a different opinion as they are actively looking for new allies in the Indo-Pacific region and they are finding them in Australia, India and Japan. These allies have at least one major advantage over the European Union\u2014as nation states they find it easier to define their foreign policy goals and to make political decisions. They also have greater stakes in containing China than Europe.<\/h2>\n

RL: These countries are indeed under threat which brings them much closer together. The AUKUS partnership showed us not only that the US can act decisively and convince Australia to give up a huge military contract with France, but also that Great Britain may happily get on board. Now we need to carefully decide which position we as Europeans need to take in this new gambit. The figures on the chessboard are now in new positions.<\/p>\n

IH: It started when Trump took the Trans Pacific Partnership off the table, which was then replaced by new initiatives created by China called RCEP. We should really not underestimate it, since it includes China, South Korea, Jaan, Australia and others.\u00a0 American misplayed the previous chess game and are now trying to come back to correct their mistakes. For that, however, they will need Europeans.<\/p>\n

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The world\u2019s largest free trade agreement will come into force on 1 January 2022. #RCEP<\/a> will help \ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddfa service providers & investors access new markets, enhance protection for financial and \ud83d\udcbbservices & streamline \ud83d\udeebfor businesspeople in the #asiapacific<\/a> https:\/\/t.co\/YP9PLj7va8<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/MulnK93qXS<\/a><\/p>\n

— DFAT Trade Talk \ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddfa (@DFAT_TradeTalk) December 7, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n